We may not be a typical 18-year-old YouTube investor guru, but we do know how supply, demand and prices of used electric carswork in the Netherlands.
A question we often get from clients: What are the prices of used EVs going to do?
No one can predict the future, but we can learn from the past. So let's look at how the prices of the Tesla Model 3 (model years 2018-2020) have developed in theDutch electric-occupier market.
In a nutshell: Subscribe to Eccasion now to secure your used EV and take advantage of possible price drops.
Tesla entered the Dutch leasing market in a big way in 2019. Almost 30,000 cars were registered in the last months of that year, mostly in leasing contracts. Why? The Model 3 was the first truly advanced electric car that caught on with a broad audience and especially because there were very attractive addition benefits for a company car.
Five years later, most of the lease contracts expire and these cars end up on B2B auction platforms where car companies buy. To prevent the market from being flooded and prices of used electric cars from plummeting, leasing companies spread the supply through:
This approach worked: the price drop was limited to no more than 10% (see chart, A).
The Tesla brand - and Elon Musk in particular - often made the news (negatively) in recent years. Did this affect used EV prices?
Arrow B shows that when Musk became "co-founder" of DOGE, and the bumper stickers with I bought these before Elon went crazy were suddenly popular, the stock of used cars increased by 50%, but the prices of used electric cars remained almost the same. Only when Musk left DOGE (Arrow C) did the stock drop a lot and prices slowly began to rise.
In 2025, we expect a similar pattern of many leased carsenteringthe used EV market in the final months of the year.Only thistime, however, Tesla does not dominate. In terms of numbers:
Moreover, the peak as in December 2019 (literally on Dec. 31, when cars came straight off the boat) is now spread out from September.
For Q4, we expect the following in the used EV market:
While we do not know the political ambitions of the leaders in the auto industry, the additional inflows are likely to have only a small impact on prices.
The market for used electric cars in the Netherlands is maturing: it grew 43% in 2024 and that trend continues in 2025. It remains a supply-driven market, but more and more people are open to buying an electric used car.
Leasing companies continue to use their "peak shaving" tactics to avoid sharp price drops. This year's peak of one brand in one month in 2024 will be spread out over 3-4 months and spread over at least five popular electric car models.
If there are price changes, we expect them to begin about a month earlier than the original registration month five years ago. Also visible at arrow A in the chart. So for this year, that will start in August/September, now :)
It will surprise us if the price drop will be more than 5% over previous months in a stable market. And yes, 5% is a nice amount on an average electric occasion of €20,000, but don't be fooled by headlines like DOES TESLA REMAIN UNDER €10,000? - that's never going to happen for a 4-5 yr old electric occasion.
At Eccasion, it works differently:
Traditional dealers have to sell their older, more expensive inventory before adjusting prices. So with Eccasion, you notice a price drop sooner.
Thanks to JP.cars for providing the data!